Immigration New Zealand (INZ) has released its latest estimate of people currently in the country who have overstayed their visas, showing that approximately 19,153 people were unlawfully present in New Zealand as of 1 July 2026.
The New Zealand visa overstayer estimate 2026 represents an 8.7% decrease compared with the previous estimate of 20,979 people recorded as of 1 July 2025.
INZ says the reduction is partly linked to refinements in its methodology. These changes improve the accuracy, consistency and completeness of the estimate rather than indicating a major change in the underlying approach.
The agency also stressed that visa overstayers represent a very small proportion of the millions of people who lawfully visit, work or study in New Zealand each year.
New Zealand Visa Overstayer Estimate 2026 Shows 19,153 People
According to the latest release, the New Zealand visa overstayer estimate 2026 identifies approximately 19,153 people who had overstayed their visas as of 1 July 2026.
The estimate is based on approximately 30 years of immigration and border movement data, reflecting the period since Immigration New Zealand introduced electronic records.
INZ refined its methodology in 2026 by removing Exemption NZeTA holders and Air Crew NZeTA holders. These groups were excluded because they align with visa categories already excluded under the existing methodology.
INZ stated that without the 2026 methodological refinement, the estimate would have been approximately 20,994. That figure is only 15 higher than the previous year’s estimate of 20,979.
This means the apparent decrease should be interpreted carefully. Much of the difference is associated with improved data treatment rather than a dramatic fall in the number of people overstaying.
Overstayers Represent a Small Share of Temporary Arrivals
Immigration New Zealand says the number of people who overstay their visas remains very small compared with the total number of lawful temporary migrants and visitors.
Between 1 July 2023 and 30 June 2026:
- Approximately 5,046,078 temporary visa arrivals were recorded.
- Around 6,559 people who arrived during that period were recorded as having overstayed as of 1 July 2026.
- The overall overstay rate was approximately 0.13%.
The New Zealand visa overstayer estimate 2026 therefore needs to be understood as a statistical estimate of people currently present unlawfully, rather than a measure of all temporary migrants who have ever overstayed.
INZ General Manager Immigration Compliance and Investigations Steve Watson said the vast majority of people who enter New Zealand comply with their visa conditions. Most either leave before their visa expires or obtain another visa that allows them to remain lawfully.
INZ processes approximately one million visa applications and 1.6 million NZeTA requests annually, while around 3.6 million non-New Zealand citizens arrive in the country each year.
Top Nationalities in the 2026 Estimate
The latest figures show that people from China, Tonga and the United States make up the largest estimated nationality groups.
| Rank | Nationality | Estimated Overstayers |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | China | 2,694 |
| 2 | Tonga | 2,541 |
| 3 | United States of America | 1,981 |
| 4 | India | 1,522 |
| 5 | Samoa | 1,462 |
| 6 | Great Britain | 1,117 |
| 7 | Philippines | 898 |
| 8 | Malaysia | 574 |
| 9 | Vietnam | 538 |
| 10 | Fiji | 512 |
| 11 | Other nationalities | 5,314 |
| Total | 19,153 |
The top 10 nationalities account for approximately 72.3% of the total estimate.
Indian nationals ranked fourth, with an estimated 1,522 people recorded as overstayers as of 1 July 2026.
However, the figures should not be interpreted as evidence that every person in a nationality group has deliberately violated immigration rules. The estimate is based on statistical modelling and historical movement records. It does not explain the individual circumstances behind each case.
Temporary Visa Arrivals and Overstay Rates
INZ also released a comparison of temporary visa arrivals between 1 July 2023 and 30 June 2026 and the number of individuals from those arrivals recorded as overstayers on 1 July 2026.
| Nationality | Temporary Visa Arrivals | Recorded Overstayers | Percentage |
|---|---|---|---|
| United States of America | 967,633 | 925 | 0.10% |
| Tonga | 31,054 | 666 | 2.14% |
| China | 761,140 | 653 | 0.09% |
| Great Britain | 456,710 | 580 | 0.13% |
| India | 303,457 | 518 | 0.17% |
| Samoa | 29,910 | 375 | 1.25% |
| Fiji | 66,342 | 222 | 0.33% |
| Philippines | 125,118 | 179 | 0.14% |
| Malaysia | 100,196 | 179 | 0.18% |
| Vietnam | 27,336 | 167 | 0.61% |
| Other nationalities | 2,177,182 | 2,095 | 0.10% |
| Total | 5,046,078 | 6,559 | 0.13% |
Tonga recorded the highest percentage among the listed nationalities at 2.14%, followed by Samoa at 1.25% and Vietnam at 0.61%.
These percentages reflect a specific three-year arrival snapshot and should not be confused with the total estimated overstayer population, which includes people whose immigration and border records may cover a much longer period.
How the New Zealand Visa Overstayer Estimate 2026 Is Calculated
The New Zealand visa overstayer estimate 2026 is not a simple count of people identified during enforcement operations.
Instead, INZ uses a statistical model based on immigration records, visa information and border movement data. The model is designed to estimate how many people may currently be in New Zealand after their visa has expired.
INZ says the estimate is used alongside other systems and tools for:
- Risk management
- Operational planning
- Policy development
- Immigration compliance planning
- Improving understanding of visa overstaying trends
The estimate is not used by itself to identify or locate specific individuals.
The 2026 methodology refinement removed certain NZeTA categories that were already intended to be excluded. INZ said applying those exclusions more consistently reduced the likelihood of individuals being incorrectly included in the estimate.
What Happens When a New Zealand Visa Expires?
New Zealand law requires people to hold a valid visa while staying in the country.
According to Immigration New Zealand, a person whose visa has expired and who has not obtained another valid visa is unlawfully present. They must leave New Zealand immediately unless they have another lawful basis to remain.
People who remain after their visa expires may:
- Become liable for deportation.
- Be detained by immigration authorities.
- Lose the right to work or study.
- Face restrictions on publicly funded healthcare, except in limited circumstances.
- Face a potential re-entry ban if they remain unlawfully for 42 days or more.
- Experience difficulties obtaining future New Zealand visas.
INZ advises people who need to remain in New Zealand longer to apply for another visa before their current visa expires. The agency generally recommends applying at least one month before the expiry date, allowing time for processing.
Does a Section 61 Request Automatically Legalise Someone?
People who are unlawfully present in New Zealand may consider making a request under Section 61 of the Immigration Act 2009.
However, a Section 61 request does not automatically stop deportation or guarantee that a visa will be granted. INZ is not legally required to consider every request, and applicants remain liable for deportation while unlawfully present.
Anyone whose visa has expired should obtain advice from a licensed immigration adviser or an immigration lawyer and contact Immigration New Zealand to discuss their circumstances.
What the New Zealand Visa Overstayer Estimate 2026 Figures Mean for Indian Nationals
The New Zealand visa overstayer estimate 2026 places India among the four largest nationality groups in the estimate, with 1,522 people.
The separate three-year arrival table records:
- 303,457 temporary visa arrivals from India.
- 518 individuals from that arrival period recorded as overstayers.
- An estimated overstay percentage of 0.17%.
The figures do not mean that 1,522 Indian nationals all entered New Zealand during the three-year period. The total estimate is based on a much longer period of immigration and border data, while the arrival comparison covers only 1 July 2023 to 30 June 2026.
This distinction is important when interpreting the data accurately.
INZ Says Most Visa Holders Follow the Rules
Immigration New Zealand has emphasised that overstaying remains a relatively small issue compared with the overall volume of international travel and temporary migration.
The agency processes large numbers of visitor, student and work visa applications every year. Most visa holders leave New Zealand before their visas expire or secure another visa that allows them to stay.
INZ also encourages people who are unlawfully present to contact the agency and discuss their circumstances. Depending on the situation, individuals may be advised about available immigration options or voluntary departure arrangements.
The New Zealand visa overstayer estimate 2026 is intended to support compliance planning and transparency, while also showing that the overwhelming majority of visitors and temporary migrants comply with New Zealand’s immigration requirements.
Final Takeaway On New Zealand Visa Overstayer Estimate 2026
The New Zealand visa overstayer estimate 2026 places the number of people who had overstayed their visas at approximately 19,153 as of 1 July 2026.
Although this is lower than the previous estimate of 20,979, INZ says the reduction is largely connected to methodological refinements. Using the previous methodology, the estimate would have been approximately 20,994.
The data also shows that overstayers represent only around 0.13% of temporary visa arrivals recorded over the three-year period examined.
For visa holders, the key message remains clear: monitor visa expiry dates, apply for a new visa before the current one expires and seek professional advice promptly if lawful status has already expired.
FAQs : New Zealand Visa Overstayer Estimate 2026
What is the New Zealand visa overstayer estimate 2026?
The New Zealand visa overstayer estimate 2026 is Immigration New Zealand’s statistical estimate of people who were still in the country after their visas expired. As of 1 July 2026, the estimate was 19,153 people.
How much did the estimated overstayer population decrease?
The estimate decreased by approximately 8.7% from 20,979 in 2025 to 19,153 in 2026. INZ says the decrease is partly due to methodology refinements.
Which nationality had the highest estimated number of overstayers?
Chinese nationals had the highest estimated number, at 2,694, followed by Tonga with 2,541 and the United States with 1,981.
How many Indian nationals were included in the estimate?
The estimate included 1,522 Indian nationals as of 1 July 2026. The separate three-year arrival comparison recorded 518 Indian nationals as overstayers from temporary visa arrivals during that period.
What happens if someone stays in New Zealand after their visa expires?
A person who remains without a valid visa is unlawfully present and may face detention, deportation, work and study restrictions, and possible future visa or re-entry consequences.
Does a Section 61 request guarantee a new visa?
No. A Section 61 request does not automatically stop deportation and does not guarantee that Immigration New Zealand will grant a visa.
Is the overstayer estimate used to identify individuals?
No. INZ says the estimate is a statistical model used for risk management, operational planning and policy development. It is not used by itself to identify specific people.
Source : Official NZ Immigration
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